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Client
The World Bank, Washington DC, USA
Business Need
The World Bank, in its endeavor to provide
loans for recovery and reconstruction from
catastrophes such as cyclones, earthquakes,
and floods in affected regions in Asia,
wanted to evaluate the existing funding
mechanisms and explore alternative funding
methods outside the state/national budgets.
In order to achieve this objective, The
World Bank decided to undertake a catastrophic
risk assessment pilot study in select states
of India. The states identified for this
study were Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra
and Orissa.
Solution
RMSI’s team of risk modeling experts
developed catastrophic risk assessment models
for estimation of future losses due to natural
disasters using scientific principles, probabilistic
methods, and global best practices.
The project was designed to comprise modeling
of:
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Natural
catastrophes – cyclone, earthquake
and flood |
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Exposed assets—housing
and public infrastructure |
The risk modeling involved historical catalog
compilation, hazard assessment, vulnerability
evaluation, exposure development, and loss
analysis.
As a deliverable, The World Bank was provided
with a detailed report that included various
loss results including aggregate and occurrence
loss exceeding curves/tables, average annual
losses (AAL), loss costs and probable maximum
losses (PML). Hazard and risk mapping was
also delivered as part of the project study.
All attempts were made to calibrate and
validate the models with the observed values.
At many places, the match between observed
and modeled values was as close as +/-10%.
Benefits
The comprehensive study report was delivered
by RMSI on time (within three months from
the contract sign off). RMSI with its past
experience and expertise in the field of
risk assessment modeling was able to overcome
many of the problems specific to this region
such as lack of data availability, accessibility,
and reliability, and limited domestic research.
In-house data generated from past studies
and projects were also used for this study.
Secondary sources including published data
and literature were also explored intensively.
Overall, the project was a milestone in
India’s catastrophe risk modeling
application research. The World Bank was
able to use the report for further analysis,
risk management, and planning activities.
Technologies
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