Current Monsoon Delay to Affect Overall Rice Production by 15 - 20 Percent: RMSI Study

New Delhi, 10th June, 2009: New Delhi, July 09, 2009: The delay and long spell of dry breaks in this year’s monsoon will affect rice production by upto 38 percent in major rice growing regions of the country as per a study conducted by RMSI, a leading Geospatial Company specialized in analyzing and quantifying climate and weather related risks worldwide.

The study “Effect of Monsoons delay on Rice Production - 2009” analyzed the current monsoon situation over the major rice growing belt in India that comprised of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh and Orissa and showed a reduced production ranging from 15 percent in Jharkhand to 38 percent in Andhra Pradesh.

As per Dr Satya Priya who led this study “Our results are based on the pattern of rainfall that has already taken place over the study area and the likely rainfall expected over this same area as per latest IMD forecasts. The figures could go up higher if the dry spell continues further or the current situation of patchy or erratic rainfall continues”

The study was based on a crop simulation model that took into account the entire crop cycle of rice, its hydro-meteorological requirements such as amount, time and distribution of rainfall in various stages of the crop and how shortfalls could affect the entire crop cycle.

“The delay will not only lead to reduction in rice yield but also impact the total area under rice plantation. Farmers in these regions raised seedlings around the 3rd-4th week of May with the arrival of pre – monsoon showers, affected by El-Nino and Aila which brought in rains but this seedlings could not survive under the drought like conditions which occurred thereafter in June affecting the transplantation of seedlings to the rice fields which will lead to reduced sowing area and reduced production” added Dr Satya Priya